Interconnection Queue Wait Estimator
Before a new power plant can legally connect to and operate on the grid, it must complete an interconnection study process and obtain an interconnection agreement — and across much of North America, that process is now measured in years, not months. This estimator takes your Interconnection Request (IR) submission year, the median time from IR to commercial operation date (COD), and the historical completion rate, then reports your estimated commercial operation year and the historical probability that a queued project ever actually gets built. For the dollar value of every month spent waiting, see our Interconnection Delay Cost Calculator, and for the grid-level reliability context behind why queues are so congested, see our Reserve Margin / Capacity Adequacy Calculator.
The calendar year your project enters the interconnection queue by submitting an interconnection request to the relevant ISO, RTO, or utility.
Lawrence Berkeley National Lab's 2026 Queued Up report -- the industry's authoritative annual interconnection analysis -- found the median duration from interconnection request to commercial operation date now exceeds 5 years for projects completed in 2025, more than double the under-2-year median from the early 2000s.
LBNL's research found that historically, only about 13% of capacity that enters an interconnection queue ultimately reaches commercial operation -- most projects are withdrawn.
interconnection request (IR) submission year + median time from IR to COD (years)
historical completion rate (%) -- the share of queued capacity that ultimately reaches commercial operation
These figures are national medians and averages -- actual wait times and completion rates vary significantly by region, grid operator, technology type, and queue position. Check your specific ISO/RTO or utility's current queue data for a more precise estimate.
Results update live as you type. For planning and field-check estimates — always verify against applicable standards and equipment ratings.
How we calculate this →LBNL's 2026 Queued Up report -- the industry's authoritative annual interconnection queue analysis -- found the median time from interconnection request to commercial operation now exceeds 5 years for projects completed in 2025, more than double the under-2-year median from the early 2000s. Even more sobering: historically, only about 13% of capacity that enters an interconnection queue ever actually reaches commercial operation. This is exactly why time-to-power has become as important as electricity price in data center site selection -- a project stuck in queue for 5+ years, with an 87% chance of never being built at all, isn't a reliable power source for an AI campus that needs to be operational in 18-24 months.
How the interconnection queue wait estimate is calculated
This estimator combines two figures from Lawrence Berkeley National Lab's interconnection queue research into a single planning view: when a project entering the queue today is likely to reach commercial operation, and how likely it is to get there at all. Two quantities tie the calculation together.
Estimated Commercial Operation Year = Interconnection Request (IR) Submission Year + Median Time from IR to COD (years). The estimated commercial operation date (COD) is the IR submission year plus the median duration from interconnection request to commercial operation. LBNL's 2026 Queued Up report found this median now exceeds 5 years for projects completed in 2025 -- more than double the under-2-year median from the early 2000s -- as a surge in wind, solar, and storage interconnection requests overwhelmed grid operators' study capacity and created large backlogs. At the defaults (2026 IR year, 5.0-year median), that is 2026 + 5.0 = 2031.
Historical Probability of Reaching Commercial Operation (%) = Historical Completion Rate (%). LBNL's research found that historically only about 13% of capacity that enters an interconnection queue ultimately reaches commercial operation -- the large majority of requests are withdrawn, often because developers submit speculatively for multiple potential sites before securing land, permits, or financing. This figure is displayed directly as contextual information rather than computed from the other inputs. At the default, that is 13%.
Two notes on the model. First, both figures are national medians and averages -- actual wait times and completion rates vary significantly by region, grid operator, technology type, and queue position, so always check your specific ISO/RTO or utility's current queue data for a more precise estimate. Second, the interconnection landscape is actively changing: several grid operators have moved to cluster study processes, implemented stricter site-control and withdrawal-penalty requirements to discourage speculative applications, and piloted automated study software -- reforms that may shorten queues over time, though their full effect is still unfolding. Data sources: Interconnection queue wait times and completion rates from Lawrence Berkeley National Lab's 2026 Queued Up report (the industry's authoritative annual interconnection queue analysis); historical interconnection request duration trends from LBNL Queued Up reports (2015-2026); project completion and withdrawal rates from LBNL interconnection queue research; regional variation in interconnection wait times from ISO/RTO-specific queue data and FERC filings; interconnection queue reform initiatives from FERC orders and grid operator announcements; cluster study processes and automated study software pilots from grid operator technical reports and industry publications. Verification: with defaults (2026 IR year, 5.0-year median, 13% completion rate), Estimated Commercial Operation Year = 2031, Historical Probability of Reaching Commercial Operation = 13%.